(Amsterdam, 10 February, 2023)

Mr. Hans Poulis, Chairman of the Netherlands Hong Kong Business Association,

Mr. Jochum Haakma, Chairman of the Netherlands China Business Council,

Dear Friends, Ladies and gentlemen,

Good evening!

I have attended and addressed several events organized by Netherlands Hong Kong Business Association and Netherlands China Business Council. Each time I would seek advice from Hans and Jochum about what to say. Their response were always the same: Covid in China, and when we could travel to China.

Well, these were difficult questions for me over the past two years.

Not any more this time around.  

This is my most relaxed dinner as we are much less bothered by Covid. Thanks for the invitation.

Today, we are in good mood, let’s enjoy the good food, and have a good chat.  

Let me first, of course, address the questions of Covid and travel.

For the first time in a long time -- three years’ long, we now see the light at the end of the tunnel. we are driving out of the tunnel.

China is now managing Covid-19 as a Class-B infectious disease. Life and work are coming back to normal across the country.

China’s current 40-day Spring Festival travel rush is witnessing 2.1 billion passenger trips, the largest human migration on earth.

So far, we have not detected the feared virus mutation or surge of Covid cases.

We have lifted almost all the restrictions on international business travel, except that you may need to do a PCR test before boarding the plane. 

Visa application is the same as before the pandemic.

No requirement for quarantine.

Dear friends,

Economically speaking, 2023 will be a good year for China and the world.

There are reasons to be optimistic: Covid tamed, inflation tamed.

IMF recently revised upward its prediction of China’s economic growth in 2023 from 4.4% to 5.2%, against the global average of 2.9%.

Many say that China’s reopening or reconnecting with the outside world could be the biggest economic event of the year.

China was and still is the major engine of global growth.  

China’s Vice-Premier Liu He delivered this clear message at the World Economic Forum last month: China is coming back.

Here I wish to clarify two issues that could be misunderstood.

First, China will not waver in opening-up and reform.

VP Liu made it crystal clear that China’s opening up to the world is a must, not an expediency. China must open up wider and make it work better.

China will continue to attract foreign investment and promote foreign trade, support the private sector. 

China will carry out deeper reform, with the objective of establishing a socialist market economy. No going back to the planned economy. The development of the Greater Bay Area is a good example of deepening reform and openness in China. Its combined regional GDP reached 1.85 trillion USD in 2021.  

Some people may have misinterpretation on our policy of common prosperity, seeing it as a kind of egalitarianism or welfarism. 

Common prosperity is aimed at preventing polarization, ensuring lasting stability. Yet China is in the primary stage of socialism and common prosperity is therefore a long-term task that requires an incremental and gradual approach.

We believe in equal opportunities not equal outcomes. No robbing from the rich to give to the poor.

We believe that entrepreneurship is a key factor for wealth creation of a society.

Second, China is to release the power of consumption for growth.

There will be a robust cyclical recovery, a boom after the bust caused by the Covid. And China’s pent-up consumer activity will buoy global demand.

Yet more important is China’s structural reform, to move away from the investment-led, property-driven growth towards a consumption-led growth model, to re-balance the economy.

In so doing, China will not only set to rebound, but can also lay the solid foundation for sustainable and high-quality development in the medium- and long-term.

With 1.4 billion people, a per capita GDP nearly US$ 13,000, a 400 million strong middle-income group that is still expanding, consumption is the greatest potential for and could be the “main driving force” of the Chinese economy.  

That’s why I am optimistic about and confident in China’s development.

Yet we are fully aware of the challenges. Geopolitics is the most severe one.  

While it is almost impossible for the political parties in the US to reach consensus on any major issues given its polarized politics, the bipartisan consensus on containing China is strong, and will be stronger in the run-up to the general elections in 2024;

Yesterday, they call China a rival; today, a challenge; tomorrow, a threat.

Well, the US needs an enemy to forge its own unity.

The current US administration has repeated again and again that China represents America's most consequential geopolitical challenge to the United States.

And there are actions to match the word -- more and escalating actions. For example, in the economic sector, banning and blacklisting Chinese companies, decoupling, disrupting the semiconductor supply chains.  

China is not interested in geopolitical competition. Its focus is on development. China is for peace and cooperation.  

In reaching out to the Dutch people, I often ask if there ever occurred in history that China harmed the interest of the Europe. 

The Netherlands has been a standard-bearer for free trade.

Many Dutch companies are competitive, some super competitive, because they go global -- global supply and global sale.

China is not only an increasingly important market, also an indispensable part of the manufacturing chain. I don’t think losing Chinese market will serve to maintain Dutch companies’ leadership.

We should oppose politicizing and weaponizing economic issues, destabilizing global industrial and supply chains.

If there are trade disputes, we can go to the WTO for settlement, instead of taking unilateral actions. That’s multilateralism which we both embrace.

Let’s say no to decoupling, no to a new cold war.

While China will continue to improve its investment environment and ease of doing business, we also hope that the business environment in the Netherlands could remain friendly and attractive.

Recently I have been puzzled by the news of suspending or considering to suspend the sister relations by the Dutch side with the Chinese provinces or cities. Not sure the decisions are informed decisions.

Many Chinese officials are now making plans for business trips to explore trade and investment opportunities now that we are more or less out of the woods of the pandemic.

But they are hesitating if they will visit the Netherlands, given this many suspensions.

I have received a lot of calls asking for advice, asking if the Dutch are now more the missionary than the merchant.

Many of you have business in China, and know the importance of local authorities in facilitating business activities in China. 

You may help me, and we help each other.

Ladies and gentlemen,

For 2023, what to expect, what to do?

A Chinese saying goes that, The whole year's work depends on a good start in spring.

Or, well begun, half done, in English.

When planning our work, we take into account the challenges as well as the following developments:

A. We are now living in the post-pandemic era.

B. China’s economy is bouncing back. 

C. There will be a new line-up of the government of China, fully unveiled next month during the parliament session.

So we will work hard to make up and catch up, to connect and enhance understanding and cooperation.

Here are the priorities of my work:  

1. To facilitate high-level exchanges, like Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra had a phone call with the new Chinese counterpart on 30 January.

2. To facilitate exchanges at all levels, local governments, tourist, etc.

3. To work closely with the Dutch side to ensure the supply chain stability.

Dear friends,

Today we are still in the first month of the lunar year.

Each Chinese lunar year is represented by an animal, 12 zodiac animals all together. I wonder if you have noticed that, while there is the year of the ox, or bull; there is no bear, no bearish year.

This is the Year of the Rabbit, meaning peaceful and productive. I believe the Dutch people also like rabbit. Dutch illustrator Dick Bruna created Nijntje, or Miffy, the most famous rabbit character in the world.

Wish you happy, healthy, wealthy and all the best in the Year of the Rabbit.

Thank you all.

Hope you like my speech, drafted by me, not Chat GPT.